The basic idea
The concept of regularity explains itself: it is what is regular.
Finding regular teams means the team is consistent... it fluctuates less... and that means you can rely on it more.
And that is what we want. Greater reliability.
How is it measured?
Regularity is calculated statistically using variance and standard deviation.
I will not get into complex math...
But, to put it simply: the lower a team's variance relative to its average, the greater its regularity.
From here on I will use fluctuation as a synonym for variance.
Why does it matter?
Let me start with an example:
Consider these two teams:
- Team A: average of 12 corners
- Team B: average of 11 corners
Both play in the same competition and have the same number of matches (5 in total).
Suppose you are looking for good teams to analyze matches with more than 8.5 corners and you come across these two teams. If you had to pick one for that analysis, which would you choose?
You would probably choose A... because it has a higher average and would give you more confidence when analyzing matches with more than 8.5 corners.
But what if I told you that this analysis is completely flawed, for many reasons?
One of them is that the average is a superficial figure and should not be used as a deciding, all-or-nothing criterion. That is the point I will dig into in this article.
Using the same example above, let me lay out the last 5 matches of each team:
Team A
- Match 1: 5 corners
- Match 2: 21 corners
- Match 3: 16 corners
- Match 4: 5 corners
- Match 5: 13 corners
- Average: 12 corners
Team B
- Match 1: 12 corners
- Match 2: 11 corners
- Match 3: 11 corners
- Match 4: 10 corners
- Match 5: 11 corners
- Average: 11 corners
Now take a close look at the last matches of Team A and Team B.
If you can already see the concept of regularity, great.
If not, look at the charts below:
Moving on
Look at the band below 8.5: Team A fell into it in 2 of its 5 matches; Team B, in none.
Now let me ask the same question again: which of the two teams would you choose for your analysis? Team A, which fluctuates a lot, or Team B, which fluctuates much less?
Link regularity with consistency, which is the same as linking it with reliability.
How to apply it in your analysis?
The simplest way to put regularity into practice is by using filters. Choose an analysis criterion and look for regular teams for your analysis.
For example, if you usually analyze the end-of-1st-half window (38-45'), look for teams with high and regular averages in that period.
There is no point in looking only at the average without looking at its fluctuation.
Final thoughts
Now that you understand the concept of regularity, its weight in the statistics and how to apply it in your analysis, you are ready to read corners with much more precision.
In this kind of analysis statistics carry a lot of weight... and that is why you need to know how to apply this kind of filter.
On Sniper Cantos you can see each team's regularity and filter the list of teams by it to find the most consistent ones.
I hope that from now on you apply this concept and see how it changes the way you read matches.